Independent Research

AI Adoption

"Artificial Intelligence, Mass Unemployment, and the Optimal Financing of Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Transition Model," Working Paper, Updated April 20, 2026.

The Safe Asset

"The Dynamics of Safe Asset Status: A Dynamic Simulation of U.S. Hegemony, Transition, and Multipolarity,” Working Paper, updated May 24, 2026.

Dashboard, last updated May 24, 2026

Python code, zip file, last updated May 24, 2026

Replicator-Mutator Dynamics and the Safe Asset Status of the United States: An Evolutionary Model of the Global Safe Asset Provider Applied to Financial Economics and Game Theory,” Working Paper, updated May 24, 2026.

Dashboard, latest update May 24, 2026

Python code, zip file, lastest update May 24, 2026

Inflation & Monetary Policy

Dashboards

Interest Rate Forecasting Dashboard, lastest update March 19, 2026

Recession Forecasting Dashboard, lastest update March 13, 2026

Inflation Forecasting Dashboard, lastest update March 1, 2026

Papers

Forecasting the 10-Year Treasury Yield, March 19, 2026‍‍ ‍WorkbookCode Documentation

Recession Forecasting with Credit and Oil Price Channels, March 13, 2026‍‍ ‍WorkbookCode Documentation

Supply-Side Inflation Forecasting When the Phillips Curve is Flat, March 3, 2026‍‍WorkbookCode Documentation

Observational Equivalence in Taylor Rule Estimation, March 1, 2026 WorkbookCode Documentation

Game-Theoretic Analysis of Current Military Conflict

Dashboards (latest update May 23, 2026)

Actuarial

Optimal Menu-of-Contracts Design in Reinsurance