Independent Research
AI Adoption
"Artificial Intelligence, Mass Unemployment, and the Optimal Financing of Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Transition Model," Working Paper, Updated September 5, 2026.
The Safe Asset
"The Dynamics of Safe Asset Status: A Dynamic Simulation of U.S. Hegemony, Transition, and Multipolarity,” Working Paper, updated July 18, 2026.
Dashboard, last updated July 19, 2026
Python code, last updated July 19, 2026
“Replicator-Mutator Dynamics and the Safe Asset Status of the United States: An Evolutionary Model of the Global Safe Asset Provider Applied to Financial Economics and Game Theory,” Working Paper, updated July 19, 2026.
Dashboard, latest update July 19, 2026
Python code, lastest update July 19, 2026
Inflation & Monetary Policy
Dashboards
Interest Rate Forecasting Dashboard, lastest update March 19, 2026
Recession Forecasting Dashboard, lastest update March 13, 2026
Inflation Forecasting Dashboard, lastest update March 1, 2026
Papers
Forecasting the 10-Year Treasury Yield, March 19, 2026 | Workbook | Code Documentation
Recession Forecasting with Credit and Oil Price Channels, March 13, 2026 | Workbook | Code Documentation
Supply-Side Inflation Forecasting When the Phillips Curve is Flat, March 3, 2026 | Workbook Code Documentation
Observational Equivalence in Taylor Rule Estimation, July 26, 2026 | Replication Files
Corporate Finance
Intertemporal Smoothing and Cross-Sectional Pricing in U.S. Personal Automobile Insurance, Working Paper, September 7, 2025
Actuarial
Competitive Kelly Underwriting with Deep Reinforcement Learning (with Can Wang)
Loss Development Structure | Python Replication Code | Workbook | BLISS Python Package and Vignette