Independent Research

AI Adoption

"Artificial Intelligence, Mass Unemployment, and the Optimal Financing of Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Transition Model," Working Paper, Updated July 12, 2026.

The Safe Asset

"The Dynamics of Safe Asset Status: A Dynamic Simulation of U.S. Hegemony, Transition, and Multipolarity,” Working Paper, updated July 18, 2026.

Dashboard, last updated July 19, 2026

Python code, last updated July 19, 2026

“Replicator-Mutator Dynamics and the Safe Asset Status of the United States: An Evolutionary Model of the Global Safe Asset Provider Applied to Financial Economics and Game Theory,” Working Paper, updated July 19, 2026.

Dashboard, latest update July 19, 2026

Python code, lastest update July 19, 2026

Inflation & Monetary Policy

Dashboards

Interest Rate Forecasting Dashboard, lastest update March 19, 2026

Recession Forecasting Dashboard, lastest update March 13, 2026

Inflation Forecasting Dashboard, lastest update March 1, 2026

Papers

Forecasting the 10-Year Treasury Yield, March 19, 2026‍‍ ‍Workbook ‍Code Documentation

Recession Forecasting with Credit and Oil Price Channels, March 13, 2026‍‍ ‍Workbook ‍Code Documentation

Supply-Side Inflation Forecasting When the Phillips Curve is Flat, March 3, 2026‍‍ ‍Workbook ‍Code Documentation

Observational Equivalence in Taylor Rule Estimation, July 26, 2026‍ Replication Files

Actuarial

Optimal Menu-of-Contracts Design in Reinsurance

Loss Development Structure Python Replication Code Workbook | BLISS Python Package and Vignette