Independent Research

AI Adoption

"Artificial Intelligence, Mass Unemployment, and the Optimal Financing of Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Transition Model," Working Paper, Updated April 20, 2026.

The Safe Asset

"The Dynamics of Safe Asset Status: A Dynamic Simulation of U.S. Hegemony, Transition, and Multipolarity,” Working Paper, updated April 18, 2026.

Dashboard, last updated April 18, 2026

Python code, zip file, last updated April 18, 2026

“Replicator-Mutator Dynamics and the Safe Asset Status of the United States: An Evolutionary Model of the Global Safe Asset Provider Applied to Financial Economics and Game Theory,” Working Paper, updated April 18, 2026.

Dashboard, latest update April 18, 2026

Python code, zip file, lastest update April 18, 2026

Inflation & Monetary Policy

Dashboards

Interest Rate Forecasting Dashboard, lastest update March 19, 2026

Recession Forecasting Dashboard, lastest update March 13, 2026

Inflation Forecasting Dashboard, lastest update March 1, 2026

Papers

Forecasting the 10-Year Treasury Yield, March 19, 2026‍‍ ‍WorkbookCode Documentation

Recession Forecasting with Credit and Oil Price Channels, March 13, 2026‍‍ ‍WorkbookCode Documentation

Supply-Side Inflation Forecasting When the Phillips Curve is Flat, March 3, 2026‍‍WorkbookCode Documentation

Observational Equivalence in Taylor Rule Estimation, March 1, 2026 WorkbookCode Documentation

Game-Theoretic Analysis of Current Military Conflict

Dashboards (latest update April 28, 2026)

Actuarial

Optimal Menu-of-Contracts Design in Reinsurance