Research

Actuarial & Insurance

Algorithmic Learning in Competitive Insurance Underwriting (with Can Wang), revised October 6, 2026 | Paper Flow Map

Loss Development Structure | Python Replication Code | Workbook | BLISS Python Package and Vignette

Optimal Menu-of-Contracts Design in Reinsurance, revised July 12, 2026.

Intertemporal Smoothing and Cross-Sectional Pricing in U.S. Personal Automobile Insurance, revised September 26, 2026 | Paper Flow Map

AI Adoption

"Artificial Intelligence, Mass Unemployment, and the Optimal Financing of Universal Basic Income: A Dynamic Transition Model," revised September 5, 2026.

Macroeconomics

“Fiscal Capacity and Sovereign Debt Crises in the G7,” revised October 8, 2026 | Paper Flow Map | Dashboard. | Stochastic Map

“Optimal Monetary Policy When the Economy Must Be Learned," revised October 3, 2026 | Paper Flow Map

The Safe Asset

"The Dynamics of Safe Asset Status: A Dynamic Simulation of U.S. Hegemony, Transition, and Multipolarity,” revised July 18, 2026.

Dashboard, updated July 19, 2026

Python code, updated July 19, 2026

“Replicator-Mutator Dynamics and the Safe Asset Status of the United States,” revised July 19, 2026.

Dashboard, updated July 19, 2026

Python code, updated July 19, 2026

Forecasting

Dashboards

Interest Rate Forecasting Dashboard (monthly update scheduled for fourth day of the month, 5:47 p.m. Eastern)

Recession Forecasting Dashboard, lastest update March 13, 2026

Inflation Forecasting Dashboard, lastest update March 1, 2026

Papers

Forecasting the 10-Year Treasury Yield, revised October 5, 2026‍‍ | Paper Flow Map | Excel Workbook | Code Documentation

Recession Forecasting with Credit and Oil Price Channels, March 13, 2026‍‍ | Excel Workbook | Code Documentation

Supply-Side Inflation Forecasting When the Phillips Curve is Flat, March 3, 2026‍‍ | Excel Workbook | ‍Code Documentation

Observational Equivalence in Taylor Rule Estimation, July 26, 2026‍ | Replication Files