Overview
Aggregate stability, five games20/100Low; 21 last week (20.4 against 21.2 before rounding)−1 point on the week
Lowest gameGame VThird-party entry, at 9, the lowest any game has recorded
Game IV · Iran’s best reply to Israeli strikesAbsorbPosterior 40%, 25 points above the 15% threshold+3 points on the week
Game III · U.S. share at the benchmark78%A fixed benchmark, not a weekly estimate
This week
U.S. forces struck Iranian air-defense sites on Qeshm on 2 November after the Guard fired at a U.S. aircraft, and again by 6 November, and UKMTO counted 11 ships attacked in seven days, three of them sunk. Democrats won both chambers of Congress on 3 November, a senior Iranian official said Iran sent a nuclear proposal through Qatar behind its seven conditions, and Turkey ratified the Mecca agreement. Aggregate stability, at 20, is the lowest of the record.
The five games
| Game | Stability | Last week | Reading of the week |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICeasefire decision | 22 | U.S. forces struck air-defense sites on Qeshm on 2 November after Guard fire at a U.S. aircraft, and again by 6 November, while Qatar’s mediation continued and a senior Iranian official said Iran sent a nuclear proposal (CBS News; Middle East Eye; Reuters, via Arab News). Election losses the Vice President attributed to the war and the President’s “You’ll know soon enough” leave the score where it was (The National). | |
| IIHormuz standoff | 20 | UKMTO counted 11 ships attacked in seven days and three sunk, and two seafarers were killed, one on a tanker north of Qatar and one on a dhow (Middle East Eye; Kurdistan24). The Guard declared the strait closed to ships that do not coordinate with Tehran, with exemptions by flag (CBS News; Al Jazeera). | |
| IIINuclear bargain | 28 | A senior Iranian official said Iran sent a nuclear proposal through Qatar, to be discussed after its seven conditions are met, and proposed a two-day sequence (Reuters, via Arab News; The Tribune). Lawmakers registered ten bills to leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty, none voted (Al Jazeera). | |
| IVIsrael’s independence | 26 | Factions holding 67 seats recommended Eisenkot, and Netanyahu’s request to resume strikes after the midterms was reported met by the President’s wish to let the talks play out (Algemeiner; CBS News). Iran’s posterior rises to 40 percent. | |
| VThird-party entry | 10 | Turkey ratified the Mecca agreement, 279 to 119, and an adviser to the Guard’s commander named the Emirates and Bahrain as targets (Al Jazeera). No third state is in combat with Iran. |
Scores are weekly judgments on a scale of 0 to 100: Low below 40, Medium below 65, High from 65. The sliders on the Games tab move them, and this table and the tiles follow. Sources for each reading are in the weekly record of The Escalation Ledger.
Since April
Game I · Ceasefire decision
Game II · Hormuz standoff
Game III · Nuclear bargain
Game IV · Israel’s independence
Game V · Third-party entry
Iran’s posterior, percent, 0 to 50
One point for each observation from 16 April, weekly from 11 July. The five game panels share a scale of 0 to 80. The sixth panel is Iran’s posterior that the United States controls Israel, the belief of Game IV, in percent on its own scale of 0 to 50. The aggregate of the five games is charted on The Escalation Ledger.
Game by game
Each game in turn: its structure, its payoffs or its benchmark, this week’s score with the slider that moves it, and the facts behind it.
Game I · Ceasefire decision
Chicken · United States and Iran · linked to Ledger Scenarios 1 and 2
Each side does best by standing firm while the other yields, and both do worst if neither yields. There are two pure equilibria, one for each side yielding; which obtains depends on who commits first and is believed.
| Iran’s strategy | ||
| Swerve | Stay | |
| U.S. Swerve | 3,3 Compromise deal |
2,4 Iran wins bargain |
| U.S. Stay | 4,2 United States wins bargain |
1,1 Talks collapse, war |
Ordinal payoffs, 4 best and 1 worst, the United States first and Iran second. NE marks the two pure-strategy Nash equilibria. In the mixed equilibrium each side stays with probability 1/2, so both stay with probability 25 percent.
Stability
22/100
Low
Move the scoreanalyst baseline 22
22/100
Base 22
Game II · Hormuz standoff
War of attrition · U.S. Navy and Revolutionary Guard · linked to Ledger Scenarios 1 and 3
Each transit under escort is a costly signal of resolve, and each challenge a costly signal of the capacity to deny passage. Both sides bear costs every period, and the first to quit loses.
| Transit outcome | ||
| U.S. continues | U.S. quits | |
| Iran denies | −cU,−cI Both bear per-period costs |
−VU,+VI Iran wins signaling game |
| Iran yields | +VU,−VI United States wins; freedom of navigation |
0,0 Off-equilibrium (coordination) |
Symbolic payoffs, the United States first and Iran second: c is a side’s cost per period and V its value of prevailing. In the mixed-strategy equilibrium each side quits at the constant hazard that leaves the other indifferent, Iran at cU / VU and the United States at cI / VI.
Stability
16/100
Low
Move the scoreanalyst baseline 16
16/100
Base 16
Game III · Nuclear bargain
Alternating offers under incomplete information · United States and Iran · linked to Ledger Scenarios 2 and 5
The two sides trade offers, and delay costs each of them. In Rubinstein’s solution, with the United States offering first, a side’s share rises with its own patience and falls with the other’s.
The U.S. share sUS at the weekly discount factors of the United States, 0.95, and of Iran, 0.85.
U.S. discount factorhigher is more patient
0.95
Base 0.95
Iran’s discount factorlower is less patient
0.85
Base 0.85
The benchmark of 0.95 and 0.85 is held fixed and is not re-estimated weekly: both sides now face dated deadlines, and a deadline is not a discount factor.
Under complete information the solution is agreed in the first round. Delay arises where each side is unsure of the other’s patience.
Two clocks, not two discount rates (analysis of 5 September 2026)
Reporting on the war's six-month mark supplies direct evidence on the parameter this game turns on. Yaroslav Trofimov, writing in the Wall Street Journal on 4 September, records that both parties squeezed the strait expecting to outlast the other, and that the trend now runs against Tehran: the American blockade has stopped Iranian oil leaving the Gulf since July while Washington has helped Gulf Arab producers keep moving crude, so that, in the words of a maritime analyst quoted there, the Iranian blockade is the leakier of the two. The account is careful that the question is unsettled — Iran retains escalation options and the American ability to hold the blockade for many more months is itself uncertain — and a former State Department official quoted in it puts the position as one in which the assumptions of both sides have failed and neither has an exit. The load-bearing sentence is a Gulf official's: time benefits neither party, but the clock runs faster for Iran because its pressure is economic, whereas the American clock is political and turns on public opinion.
That asymmetry is about deadlines, and a deadline is not a discount factor. Two are now dated. Iranian officials estimated at the outset that they could absorb the blockade for about five months without catastrophic economic damage; imposed on 13 April, that estimate reached its term in mid-September. The American deadline is the November midterm elections, with the war unpopular partly because of pump prices — and Iran has an evident interest in withholding any concession that would lower those prices beforehand, a calculation with a precedent Tehran remembers from 1980. The alternating-offer structure assumes stationary discounting, which is exactly what a dated deadline is not, so the model's 78 percent baseline is retained here as the stationary benchmark rather than re-fitted to the news; what the deadline structure predicts is that agreement clusters at the binding date rather than that a share is divided smoothly on the way there.
Which clock costs more
The comparative statics are worth stating because they run against the headline. On the baseline pair, a five-point fall in Iranian patience — the economic limit arriving — raises the American share from 78 to 83 percent, while a five-point fall in American patience — the election approaching — lowers it from 78 to 64. Near the baseline a one-point loss of American patience costs Washington about two and a half times what an equal loss of Iranian patience gains it, because the share is steep in the more patient party's factor. If both clocks bind together the share falls to 71 percent. Time turning against Tehran therefore does not by itself improve the American bargaining position, and Iran's best reply to a dated American deadline is the one the reporting describes: hold, escalate, and concede later and less. That a professor quoted in the same account judges escalation the more likely of Iran's two options, and that real authority appears to sit with Guard commanders who treat this as a war of survival rather than with the civilian officials calling for talks, both point the same way.
Stability
29/100
Low
Move the scoreanalyst baseline 29
29/100
Base 29
Game IV · Israel’s independence
Principal and agent · United States, Israel, and Iran · linked to Ledger Scenarios 2 and 4
The United States holds a ceasefire that does not bind Israel. Iran sees Israeli strikes and cannot tell which of them Washington authorized, so an American promise that Israel will not strike is not credible. Iran retaliates when its belief that the United States controls Israel falls below a threshold.
0%25%50%75%100%
RetaliationBelow the threshold: retaliating against Israeli strikes is Iran’s best reply.
FragileWithin 15 points above the threshold: Iran absorbs, and one further signal can change that.
StableMore than 15 points above the threshold: Iran absorbs.
Iran’s posterior that the United States controls Israel is 40%, 25 points above the threshold, in the Stable zone. Axios and Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu asked the President to resume strikes after the midterms and that the President wanted the talks to play out, and factions holding 67 seats recommended Eisenkot to form the next government; these are read as evidence that Washington sets Israel’s timing, so the posterior is raised three points, to its level of 23 May.
The posterior and the threshold are analyst parameters: neither is derived from a payoff table, and both can be moved below.
Stability
26/100
Low
Move the scoreanalyst baseline 26
26/100
Base 26
Iran’s posteriorP(United States controls Israel)
40%
Base 40%
Retaliation thresholdpoint of indifference
15%
Base 15%
Game V · Third-party entry
Global game of entry · Turkey, China, Russia, and the Gulf states · linked to Ledger Scenario 4
Each potential entrant has a threshold beyond which entering is individually rational, and each threshold depends on beliefs about the others. An event that all see at once can carry several across their thresholds together.
| Player | Threshold | Position on 7 November 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Turkey | A missile strike on Turkish soil | Four Iranian missiles were intercepted over Turkey in March and none struck; the plenary ratified the Mecca agreement on 6 November, 279 to 119, a deployment of troops needing a separate approval, and the defense minister foresees no conflict with the Houthis |
| China | A Chinese tanker sunk with crew killed | A Chinese-owned tanker was attacked in May, and a supertanker that one account gives as Chinese-owned was struck on 9 October; an Iranian lawmaker said ships of China pass the strait under an exemption, and no Chinese ship was found attacked in the week |
| Russia | Casualties at Bushehr or a nuclear release | Rosatom evacuated staff in March and April; its head said on 22 August that 42 were back |
| Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates | Mass casualties on their territory | Houthi strikes killed at least 12 at Riyadh’s airport on 10 October and at least one at Dammam’s on 21 October, and in the week the coalition reported missiles intercepted near Abha, Medina, and Najran: the threshold is met for Saudi Arabia, whose war is with the Houthis and not with Iran; an adviser to the Guard’s commander named the Emirates and Bahrain as targets beyond U.S. bases, and no forces have moved |
Thresholds are the analyst’s. Sources of the positions: Turkey’s defense ministry on the interceptions of 4, 9, 13, and 30 March, as compiled by Wikipedia; Marine Insight, 8 May, on the tanker attacked in May; Kurdistan24, 22 August, citing Rosatom’s head through Interfax; The Maritime Executive, 9 October; the Saudi civil aviation authority, via Al Jazeera, 10 October; Reuters, via The Times of Israel, 22 October; Al Jazeera, 4 and 6 November; Khaleej Times, 1 November; CBS News, 5 and 6 November.
Stability
9/100
Low
Move the scoreanalyst baseline 9
9/100
Base 9
Signaling log
Public statements and actions read as signals: costly ones, cheap ones, and commitments. The entries since 24 October are shown, and the earlier ones are below them.
6 Nov
United States · Trump
The President confirms “minor strikes” on air defenses at Suza, on Qeshm, and says Iran wants a deal. The President said U.S. forces had carried out “minor strikes” and “knocked out” air defenses at Suza on Qeshm Island “in about 15 minutes, maybe five,” and added, “They want to make a deal” (Middle East Eye). He spoke the same day with Qatar’s Emir, whose office said they discussed “diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions” (CBS News).
Force Used, LimitedGames I & II: a second strike in five days, again on air defenses and again paired with talk of a deal, answers fire at U.S. aircraft with force without resuming the campaign.
6 Nov
Turkey · Grand National Assembly
Parliament ratifies the Mecca agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, 279 to 119. The plenary ratified the agreement on 6 November by 279 votes to 119; its second article is a mutual-assistance clause, and a deployment of troops needs a separate approval. The defense minister said Turkey does not foresee “entering into any conflict with the Houthis” (Al Jazeera).
Pact RatifiedGame V: a ratified clause binds Turkey to Saudi Arabia, whose war is with the Houthis; on the reading of 10 October an agreement without combat is not an entry.
5 Nov
Iran · Rezaei in Moscow
Iran’s security chief carries a letter to Putin; Iran says it sent a nuclear proposal through Qatar. Mohsen Rezaei delivered a letter from the Supreme Leader to President Putin, its contents not disclosed, and said, “As long as they do not execute our seven conditions, we will neither open the Strait of Hormuz nor have negotiations” (Reuters, via Arab News; Al Jazeera). A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran had sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar, to be discussed only after the seven demands are met; its content was not disclosed and no U.S. reaction was found.
Conditions RestatedGames I & III: an offer on the nuclear file placed behind the seven conditions is a move in the bargain that concedes nothing yet.
5 Nov
United States · Trump
“Now we will make a decision”: options weighed after two days of meetings. After national-security meetings on 4 and 5 November the President said, “Now we will make a decision… I would rather not destroy the rest of the country if possible, but maybe I will have to. You’ll know soon enough” (The National). Axios reported that Central Command was finalizing preparations for a possible resumption of major operations, with no new directive (via Fox News).
Decision PendingGames I & IV: the threat is restated without a date; the preparations reported beside it are what keep it credible.
5 Nov
Iran · Revolutionary Guard navy
The Guard declares the strait “unsafe and closed” to ships that do not coordinate with Tehran. The Guard’s navy declared the strait “unsafe and closed” to vessels not coordinating with Iran (CBS News) and said tankers on an “illegal passageway” hit mines on 4 and 5 November, claims no maritime authority confirmed; Washington said the mines have been cleared (Al Jazeera). A lawmaker said ships of India, China, Iraq, and Qatar pass under exemptions (Al Jazeera).
Closure DeclaredGame II: a declared closure with exemptions by flag sets terms of passage; the attacks UKMTO confirms, not the mines the Guard claims, are what ships meet.
5 Nov
Israel · President’s consultations
Factions holding 67 seats recommend Eisenkot; Israel’s President names his choice on 8 November. Israel’s President received the certified results on 4 November and began consultations; factions holding 67 seats recommended Gadi Eisenkot against 46 for Netanyahu, the designation due on Sunday 8 November (Algemeiner; Al Jazeera). Axios and Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu urged the President in a weekend call to resume strikes after the midterms, while the President wanted the talks to play out (via CBS News).
Mandate ShiftingGame IV: a caretaker whose request for strikes Washington did not take up, facing a likely successor, points to Washington setting Israel’s timing.
4 Nov
Shipping · UKMTO
Eleven ships attacked in seven days, three sunk; a seafarer killed on a tanker north of Qatar. UKMTO counted 11 attacks in the seven days to 4 November, eight in the strait and three in the Gulf, of which three ships sank (Middle East Eye; Al Jazeera). A crew member was killed on the Greek-operated tanker Velos Sapphire about 50 nautical miles north of Qatar, its operator suspecting a missile (Kurdistan24; Gulf News), and one crew member was killed on a dhow struck by a projectile on 2 November.
Attrition RisesGame II: eleven attacks and three sinkings in seven days raise the cost of passage on both sides; neither has quit the standoff.
4 Nov
United States · midterm elections
Democrats win both chambers; the Vice President: “The reason we lost is the war.” Democrats won the House and the Senate without veto-proof majorities (Al Jazeera), and Senate Democrats’ leader said, “This war must end. It must end” (CBS News). The Vice President wrote, “The reason we lost is the war” (CBS News). The President told the Financial Times he had no immediate plans to strike and that “we’re locked and loaded if we need to go” (via CBS News).
Constraint ShownGames I & IV: losses the Vice President attributes to the war raise the domestic cost of a new campaign.
4 Nov
Iran · Supreme Leader
Mojtaba Khamenei: renewed attack would “take on much wider dimensions.” In a written statement the Supreme Leader said that U.S. hostility would not end with the elections and that, “In the event of repeated transgression, it will take on much wider dimensions” (Al Jazeera). The speaker, Ghalibaf, wrote that “Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message” (Al Jazeera).
Threat WidenedGames I & II: a threat of escalation from the Leader, in writing and without a date, costs nothing to issue.
3 Nov
Iran · Ghalibaf and the armed forces
“The ball is in America’s court”; the chief of staff sets out five conditions. The speaker told parliament that a U.S. strategic error would open “a new battlefield in the war” and that “The ball is in America’s court to prevent war” (Euronews). The armed forces’ chief of staff set out five conditions, among them an end to hostilities on all fronts, sanctions lifted, assets returned with reparations, and recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over Hormuz (Al Jazeera, citing Tasnim).
Terms RaisedGames I & III: conditions added in public by the military raise the price of a settlement without a cost to the side that names them.
2 Nov
United States · Central Command
“Limited, defensive” strikes on surface-to-air missile sites on Qeshm after Guard fire at a U.S. aircraft. U.S. forces carried out “limited, defensive” strikes on Iranian surface-to-air missile sites on Qeshm Island after the Guard fired at a U.S. aircraft near the strait, three U.S. officials said, and the Pentagon said the strikes “do not constitute a return to full aggression” (CBS News; Fox News), and the President confirmed them the next day (Euronews). No casualties were reported; Iran’s deputy foreign minister said Iran “retains the right to legitimate self-defense” (CBS News).
Fire ReturnedGames I & II: an exchange of fire between the two states, answered in proportion and declared limited by the Pentagon.
1 Nov
Iran · Araghchi
A two-day implementation proposal; Iran’s delegation leaves Doha without agreement. The foreign minister said Iran had proposed a plan that “reduces the implementation period to two days,” demanded “the restoration of oil waivers and the release of all our frozen funds,” and said reopening the strait “in accordance with our conditions paves the way for the resumption of negotiations” (Iran’s state news agency, via The Tribune). Iran’s delegation left Qatar on 1 November with a draft circulated for feedback (AP, via PBS NewsHour); Qatar’s spokesman said Doha is working “towards an interim deal” (CBS News).
Sequence OfferedGames I & III: a shorter sequence is a concession on timing, held to the same conditions; the channel through Qatar continues.
30 Oct
United States · Trump
The President says Iran wants to talk and the United States has time. At the White House the President said, “There are talks, they want to talk, they keep talking,” and “We have time, frankly” (The Times of Israel). On a Kansas City radio program he said the war is “going to get wrapped up soon,” “one way or another,” and that “We need a guarantee there’ll never be a nuclear weapon” (Türkiye Today).
Talks AcknowledgedGames I & III: eight days after “We are not negotiating,” the President names talks and time to hold them; the statement costs nothing, and it reverses last week’s.
30 Oct
Iran · Qatari mediation
Qatar’s mediators spend twelve hours in Tehran; no reply to the U.S. letter by the close. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran with edits to a draft proposal coordinated with Washington and met Iranian officials for more than 12 hours (Reuters; Axios, via TokenPost). Tasnim and Fars said the Vice President’s letter had been received and not answered, and that any departure from Iran’s seven conditions is “unacceptable” (Institute for the Study of War; Fox News); Pakistan’s military spokesman said the army is “cautiously optimistic” (Al Jazeera).
Conditions RestatedGames I & III: a long session with no reply keeps Iran’s commitment to its seven conditions intact while the channel stays open.
30 Oct
Shipping · UKMTO
October is the war’s worst month at sea, and transits rise. UKMTO counted more than 30 attacks in October, more than twice September’s (The National), and 122 outbound and 155 inbound transits in the week to 30 October against 114 and 127 the week before, traffic about 70 percent below the pre-conflict level (gCaptain). Central Command said its escorts had moved more than 3,000 vessels and 1.5 billion barrels since the summer, 95 percent of transits passing safely (Arab News); Oman rescued 25 from the burning tanker Riti on 30 October (Al Jazeera).
Attrition MeasuredGame II: the attacks and the passages rise together, which is what a war of attrition with neither side quitting looks like.
29 Oct
Iran · Revolutionary Guard navy
A limpet mine disables a tanker, the first to detonate in the war; Iran claims four more struck mines. A small boat attached two explosive devices to the hull of the Panama-flagged tanker Louise 1 about 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, starting an engine-room fire; the crew was safe and the ship resumed its voyage (UKMTO, via gCaptain). Another tanker was struck by an unknown projectile on the southern route the same day, and a dhow sank north of Khasab (UKMTO). The Guard said three tankers hit mines on an “unauthorized southern route” and the army a fourth (AFP, via Arab News); Central Command called the mine claims false and said the primary routes are cleared (Fox News; Arab News).
New Means at SeaGame II: a mine that detonates is a capability shown rather than claimed, on the route the United States promotes; the attrition continues.
29 Oct
Yemen · Houthis
Missiles and drones at Riyadh, Ras Tanura, Abqaiq, and Rabigh; Saudi defenses intercept. The Houthis claimed strikes on the Ras Tanura refinery on 27 and 29 October, on Abqaiq for the first time in the war, on the Rabigh refinery, and on Riyadh’s and Dammam’s airports; the coalition said it intercepted two ballistic missiles over Riyadh, where one citizen was wounded by shrapnel, and reported no casualties on 27 October (Al Jazeera; Institute for the Study of War). Saudi strikes on 25 October hit five missile storage sites and four launch platforms in Sanaa governorate (Institute for the Study of War). The U.S. embassy in Riyadh ordered non-emergency staff and families to leave (Institute for the Study of War, 30 October).
Front ExtendedGame V: the Saudi front widens to the oil installations of the Eastern Province, and its war stays with the Houthis.
28 Oct
United States · Vance
A letter to Iran’s security council proposes direct negotiations. The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal reported that the Vice President sent Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, a letter through Qatar proposing comprehensive direct talks with the nuclear program addressed “from the outset” (Al Jazeera, 29 October); Qatar’s mediators had passed it in Tehran on 25 October. The President said the outreach concerned “medical supplies and various things” and, asked about strikes after the midterms, “anything’s possible” (Fox News).
Channel OfferedGames I & III: a written offer of direct talks is a move in the bargain, addressed to the body that answers to the Supreme Leader; the President’s account of it keeps the threat beside it.
28 Oct
United States · force posture
Gulf allies are told to prepare for a short, intense campaign after the midterms. The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States told Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense campaign after the midterm elections, with a further carrier strike group repositioning, a Patriot battery moving from Texas to Israel, and munitions restocked, and that no decision had been taken (via Fox News and Israel Hayom); CNN reported that forces could launch major operations within 96 hours of an order (via Fox News, 26 October). The White House pledge of 22 October, no attack “at any time prior to the midterm elections,” stands (ABC News).
Forces PositionedGames I & IV: positioning is costly and dated; it makes the threat for the days after 3 November credible without breaking the pledge.
28 Oct
Israel · election
No majority: Netanyahu’s bloc at 53 seats, Eisenkot’s at 48. With all votes counted, Likud took 27 seats, Yashar 21, and the Arab parties 19; the pro-Netanyahu bloc stands at 53 of 120 and the Eisenkot bloc at 48, and the results go to the President on 4 November (The Times of Israel; Al Jazeera). Netanyahu told supporters that Israel faces “a historic, one-time opportunity along with our friend President Trump” to remove the Iranian threat (The Times of Israel). Axios reported that the chief of staff coordinated attack preparations with Central Command’s commander on 26 October (via Gulf News).
Mandate UnsettledGame IV: a government without a majority and a staff that coordinates with Central Command both point to Washington setting Israel’s timing.
27 Oct
Iran · Supreme Leader
The Supreme Leader, through Rezaei, calls for an end to “neither war nor peace.” Rezaei said after a meeting that the Supreme Leader called the situation a “crossroads” and that it was time to end the state of “neither war nor peace” (Iran International, citing Mehr); Iran’s President had said on 25 October that prolonged uncertainty is hurting the economy (the daily Iran, via the National Iranian American Council). The meeting was reported in text, with no photograph or recording, as every report of him since his selection has been (National Iranian American Council).
Direction GivenGames I & III: a direction to end the stalemate admits either exit; it raises the value of a settlement to Tehran without naming a concession.
27 Oct
IAEA · Grossi
The agency cannot verify 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium. At the Security Council the Director General said Iran’s declared material “includes 440 kg of high-enriched uranium,” that the agency “has not been able to verify that there has been no diversion of nuclear material,” and that Iran has refused access to Isfahan; inspectors have seen no work to repair the damaged facilities (Fox News; The Diplomatic Insight). The U.S. ambassador said the United States “will never let you obtain a nuclear weapon” (Fox News).
Stockpile UnverifiedGame III: the object of the bargain is unverified, which raises the price of the guarantee the United States asks for.
26 Oct
Egypt · House of Representatives
Parliament authorizes the defense of Saudi Arabia; no deployment follows. The House authorized Egypt’s President to take “the necessary measures,” in coordination with Riyadh, to defend Saudi Arabia’s “territory, sovereignty and holy sites against any external aggression,” by a two-thirds majority announced without a tally; no Saudi request and no deployment was announced (The National; Institute for the Study of War). Turkey’s parliamentary committee approved the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on 27 October, the plenary vote pending (A News).
Mandate GrantedGame V: a mandate is a step short of forces, and the forces would face the Houthis; on the reading of 26 September a defensive deployment is not an entry.
26 Oct
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan · in Tehran
The Mecca pact’s officials meet Iran’s leaders. The Saudi defense minister, Pakistan’s army chief, and Turkey’s intelligence chief met Iran’s President, the foreign minister, and Rezaei in Tehran and agreed “to continue the dialogue”; a Pakistani official told Reuters that the army chief carried a proposal pursued “with Trump’s blessing” (Al Jazeera). Qatari mediators had passed the U.S. letter the day before (Al Jazeera, 29 October).
Regional ChannelGames I & V: the states nearest the war carry the messages, which lowers the chance that any of them enters it.
Earlier entries, 10 April through 23 October (101)
22 Oct
United States · Trump
The President says the United States is not negotiating, and calls Iran’s reported hits fake. Before boarding Air Force One the President said, “We are not negotiating with” Iran, and “Something one way or another will happen, fairly soon” (The Times of Israel). On Truth Social he wrote that Iran is “making up fake hits, mines, and everything else” to raise the price of oil before the midterm elections, and that more oil now passes the strait than before the war (Iran International).
Talks DisownedGames I & III: a statement that no negotiation is under way costs nothing to make; it sets aside the review in Tehran as a channel, and “fairly soon” speaks to the weeks after 3 November.
22 Oct
Iran · Revolutionary Guard
Seven vessels are claimed hit, and U.S. bases are named as the next target. The Guard’s navy said four vessels transferring oil in the northern Persian Gulf were hit and caught fire and that three others struck mines west of the strait (Reuters, via The Times of Israel); none of the seven had been confirmed or named by the Friday close, and UKMTO had issued no matching report (gCaptain). It warned that if U.S. escorts continue, “the conflict will extend to its bases in the region” (AFP, via The Times of Israel).
Threat to BasesGames I & II: a claim of damage that cannot be confirmed is cheap, while the threat to bases ties the escorts, a move in Game II, to the decision of Game I.
21 Oct
United States and Israel · plans
A short, intensive operation after 3 November is reported planned. The New York Times reported, citing U.S. officials, that the two militaries have plans for “a short but intensive operation” against Iran after the midterm elections, with energy sites, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenals among the targets (via The Times of Israel); the Defense Secretary had met Netanyahu in Israel days earlier (Ynet). The White House said the United States would not strike Iran before the midterms (Financial Times, via Israel Hayom).
Plans DatedGames I & IV: a plan dated after the pledge keeps the pledge and moves the threat to the days after it, which the 14-day window that opens on 24 October spans.
21 Oct
United States · State Department
Ordered departure from Saudi Arabia. The department ordered the departure of non-emergency U.S. government employees and their families “in Saudi Arabia only,” its spokesman wrote, after Houthi attacks on airports and infrastructure; U.S. officials told CBS News that the military has been reducing its presence at posts in the region, citing threats from the Houthis and from Iran.
Exposure ReducedGames I & V: fewer Americans on a partner’s territory lowers what a strike there could cost the United States.
21 Oct
Yemen · Houthis
Dammam’s airport and the Shaybah field are struck, and Aramco evacuates its headquarters. A Houthi attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam killed one resident and wounded eight (Reuters, via The Times of Israel; other reports give two killed); debris from a drone intercepted over the Shaybah oil field killed two and injured two on 20 October (the Saudi energy ministry, via CBS News). Saudi Aramco ordered its Dhahran headquarters evacuated on 22 October, the first such evacuation of the war (Reuters, citing sources, via Yahoo Finance).
Strikes on the KingdomGame V: attacks on an airport and an oil field of the Eastern Province extend the Saudi front without adding a party to the war with Iran.
20 Oct
United Kingdom · defense ministry
British aircraft will intercept Houthi projectiles over Saudi Arabia. The ministry said it would intercept Houthi projectiles over Saudi Arabia, provide a transport aircraft and more military advisers, and continue air-to-air refueling (Institute for the Study of War, citing the ministry). Turkey submitted the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement to its parliament the same day, and a deployment would need separate legislative steps (Al Jazeera).
Defensive RoleGame V: a defensive role over a partner’s territory and a ratification under way lower thresholds without constituting entry, the reading of 26 September.
19 Oct
Israel · Air Force
Dozens of jets fly toward Iran and turn back short of the border. Fighter jets and tankers flew a potential attack route through Syrian and Iraqi airspace and changed course near the Iranian border; officials described a deterrent exercise before Israel’s election, notified to the United States in advance (Axios, via Ynet). The Financial Times reported that an offensive prepared for the weekend of 10 October did not proceed, mainly because of the President’s opposition to resuming hostilities before the midterms (via Israel Hayom).
Flight Short of the BorderGame IV: a flight that stops at the border and an offensive set aside on Washington’s objection are evidence that the United States sets Israel’s timing, which raises Iran’s posterior.
18 Oct
Shipping · Strait of Hormuz
A tug is hit, and each side claims the strait. Two projectiles struck a southbound tug northeast of Khor Fakkan, injuring one (UKMTO, via the Institute for the Study of War). Central Command’s commander said, “The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by the United States and our regional partners, not Iran,” counting 400 ships in a week (Al Jazeera, 17 October); Kpler put Middle East oil flows, Iran’s excluded, above 24.5 million barrels a day in the week to 18 October, more than in the week before the war (The National).
Contested PassageGame II: attacks continue while flows outside Iran recover, so each side can claim the strait and neither has quit.
17 Oct
Egypt · Sisi
Parliament is asked to authorize the defense of Saudi Arabia. The President asked for an emergency session “to authorise us to take action,” adding, “I am not speaking about attacking or waging war. We are seeking only to defend” (The National). The National Defense Council approved “all necessary and possible forms of support” on 18 October (New Lines), and the House deliberated on 19 October and is to decide the following Monday (Al-Ahram).
Authorization SoughtGame V: a second state moves toward forces on Saudi soil, for the war with the Houthis; on the reading of 26 September a defensive deployment is not an entry.
17 Oct
Pakistan and Iraq · borders
Crossings to Iran close. Pakistan temporarily closed the Gabd-Rimdan and Taftan-Mirjaveh crossings on 17 October, and Iraq closed the al Sheeb crossing on 21 October, reportedly under U.S. pressure; Iran’s foreign ministry called Pakistan’s closures temporary (Institute for the Study of War, citing Dawn and Western media).
Overland Trade NarrowedGame III: closing land routes to an economy blockaded at sea raises Iran’s cost of delay, the clock the analysis of 5 September names.
16 Oct
Iran · Pezeshkian
Iran’s President denies seeking nuclear weapons, and the army sets a condition on the strait. President Pezeshkian said, “Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons, and we consider the malicious propaganda against our country to be lies,” and that Iran is ready for dialogue (CBS News, citing Agence France-Presse). An army spokesman said the Strait of Hormuz would reopen if the United States left the region: “If it does not leave, we will expel it.”
Stated PositionGames III & V: a denial and a condition both cost nothing to state; the condition names the U.S. presence as the price of the strait, which is the term the seven conditions set.
15 Oct
United States · Pentagon
Strike options on energy and nuclear sites are reported prepared. CNN reported, citing U.S. officials, plans to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure and nuclear sites with the GBU-43/B if the President orders renewed combat, with doubts inside the administration that it would achieve U.S. goals (Al Jazeera, 15 October). The plans are contingent on an order; no deployment was reported.
Options PreparedGames I & III: prepared options make a threat cheaper to carry out, without committing anyone to it; they stand beside a pledge that covers the weeks to 3 November.
14 Oct
Israel · Netanyahu
A strike on Iran before Israel’s election is “no good.” Asked about a pre-emptive strike before the vote of 27 October, the Prime Minister told Army Radio, “It is not convenient for us, it’s no good,” and would not say whether one was possible after it (Reuters, via TimesLIVE). A day earlier Axios reported that he and the President had discussed a joint operation against military and nuclear targets, Pickaxe Mountain among them, which the White House called false.
Dated RestraintGame IV: Israel’s stated restraint runs to its own election, a week before the American date; on the timing, the two governments now say the same thing.
13 Oct
United States · White House, Trump
The pledge is restated while the President tells a rally to wait. The White House said, “The President has said that we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections” (Axios). At a rally in Alaska, reported on 14 October, the President said, “Wait till you see what we do to Iran. We’re going to we’re going to do a number” (ANI), and he told reporters, “we will make a decision on Iran very soon” (Axios). On 13 October he also said he “might” ask President Erdogan to intervene against the Houthis: “President Erdogan, I think, would do as I ask” (Reuters, via The Times of Israel).
Pledge and ThreatGames I & III: a dated pledge and an undated threat in one day; the pledge binds the weeks to 3 November, and the threat speaks to the weeks after.
13 Oct
Shipping · Strait of Hormuz
A container ship sinks after the most attacks of any week of the war. The Singapore-flagged feeder GFS Pride was struck in the strait and sank, its 21 crew evacuated, the second vessel sunk in the war on the International Maritime Organization’s data (Reuters; Reuters gives 14 October and FreightWaves 13 October). On UKMTO’s data 12 vessels reported attacks in the week of 5 through 11 October, against 10 the week before, six of them on 11 October (FreightWaves); two Indian seafarers of the Petro Dolphin, hit by a drone at Sohar anchorage on 11 October, are missing (News On AIR). Two tankers were reported struck off Jubail, Saudi Arabia, on 16 October, one by a rocket-propelled grenade from a small boat (UKMTO, via CBS News).
Denial EscalatedGames II & V: a sinking, and attacks off Oman and the Saudi coast, carry the attacks past the strait, and the costs fall on vessels and states outside the war.
12 Oct
Turkey · Erdogan
The Mecca agreement is to go to parliament. After the cabinet meeting the President said, “We are currently working to send the agreement to Parliament in the coming days,” and that Turkey will “continue to stand with Saudi Arabia” (Hürriyet Daily News, 13 October). No deployment was reported.
Ratification MovedGame V: ratification turns an invoked agreement into a domestic obligation of one more party, which lowers its threshold without constituting entry.
11 Oct
Iran · Rezaei
The U.S. reply is called inadequate, with some conditions accepted. The secretary of the Supreme National Security Council wrote that the United States had “accepted” some of Iran’s seven conditions, that its response, delivered through Qatari intermediaries, was “inadequate,” and that there would be “no return to the status quo ante” (Gulf News). The foreign ministry’s spokesman said on 12 October that the review continues and that Iran will reply through intermediaries when it ends (Reuters, via Arab News); Qatari mediators were still waiting on 13 October (Axios).
Reply QualifiedGame III: a partial acceptance stated by the receiving side is an offer to settle on the remainder; it costs nothing until the reply that carries it is sent.
10 Oct
Yemen · Houthis
Twelve killed at Riyadh’s airport. A Houthi strike on King Khalid International Airport killed at least 12, four Saudi citizens, two Bangladeshis, and one each from the United States, Jordan, Palestine, Syria, Sudan, and Egypt, and wounded 309 (the Saudi civil aviation authority, via Al Jazeera). The coalition called it a “full-fledged war crime”; the President called it “terrible” and said he was evaluating whether the United States should join the war against the Houthis.
Mass Casualties in RiyadhGame V: mass casualties on Saudi territory meet the threshold of the Saudi row, in a war that is with the Houthis and not with Iran.
10 Oct
United States · Central Command
A ship running the blockade is disabled by a fighter jet. A U.S. fighter jet struck the stern of the Panama-flagged Ocean Molica, which had left an Iranian port and ignored repeated warnings, “fully disabling the ship’s propulsion without harming the crew” (Central Command, via Al Jazeera). Central Command counts four commercial vessels disabled, 135 turned around, and 10 tankers linked to the Revolutionary Guard destroyed since 14 July.
Blockade EnforcedGame II: fire at a ship leaving an Iranian port is enforcement of the blockade within the pledge period, and not a strike on Iran.
9 Oct
Iran · Revolutionary Guard
The Guard claims a strike and extends its warning beyond the strait. The Guard's navy claimed a strike on a Vietnamese-owned gas carrier off Qatar and said that its encounters with vessels on routes it has not authorized would no longer be limited to the Strait of Hormuz; the same day a supertanker, Gem No. 2, was struck at anchor off the United Arab Emirates, which the Guard did not claim; The Maritime Executive describes the vessel as Chinese-owned, and Seatrade Maritime gives its owner as a joint venture linked to U-Ming Marine Transport, of Taiwan. Reuters counts at least 12 attacks on oil and gas tankers from 28 September through 5 October, the highest number in any week of the war.
Denial ExtendedGames II & V: a claimed strike is a signal its sender can be held to, and a wider area puts the vessels and waters of states outside the war inside the denial zone.
8 Oct
United States · Trump
The President rules out an attack on Iran before the midterm elections. He wrote, "we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections," which are held on 3 November, adding that the blockade stays in force and that discussions are productive. The statement came a day after Axios reported that the Pentagon had told Central Command to finish preparing to resume major combat operations, with no date set and no decision made.
Dated PledgeGames I, III & IV: a public pledge with a date costs nothing to make and something to break before the date; it covers the United States and not Israel, and it names the day the American clock runs to.
8 Oct
Iran · Araghchi
A reply is promised within days, nine days after the counter-offer. The Foreign Minister said Iran could respond within days to the U.S. counterproposal delivered on 29 September (Reuters); Qatari mediators were still waiting for it on 7 October (Axios). President Pezeshkian called negotiations with the United States "meaningless" on 5 October, and the head of Iran's atomic energy organization said on 8 October that Iran will neither give up enrichment nor hand over its uranium.
Reply WithheldGame III: delay is the move a dated American deadline rewards, and statements about a reply cost nothing until the reply is made.
5 Oct
Saudi Arabia · Turkey · Pakistan
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement is invoked for the first time. The defense and foreign ministers of the three states met in emergency session in Riyadh and agreed to activate deterrence measures and to provide the agreed forces and capabilities for rapid deployment to Saudi Arabia (Al Jazeera). Turkey's parliament has not ratified the agreement, and its foreign minister said on 8 October, "This is not an attack agreement"; Pakistan's foreign ministry said on 9 October that its forces in Riyadh would not cross the border to attack the Houthis.
Agreement InvokedGame V: an invocation commits its parties in public to a belligerent's defense; the stated limits, defensive roles and no crossing into Yemen, are what keep it short of entry.
4 Oct
Yemen · Saudi Arabia
A Saudi-backed offensive against the Houthis opens. The head of Yemen's presidential council announced a counteroffensive with tens of thousands of troops; a U.S. official said the United States is providing intelligence and targeting support and is taking no kinetic action for now (Axios). Houthi attacks on Saudi airports killed three foreign residents on 6 and 7 October and three Saudi citizens on 8 October, and Agence France-Presse reported at least 63 killed in 24 hours of fighting near the Bab el-Mandeb strait on 10 October, on the accounts of military sources on both sides.
Offensive OpenedGame V: the offensive reported in preparation last week is under way, and its costs now fall on the territory the Mecca agreement's parties are committed to defend.
3 Oct
Iran · source in Tehran
Tehran is reported to expect the war to resume. The National quoted a source in Tehran that Iran is preparing for "a major round of fighting," has yet to reply to the U.S. counterproposal, and is unlikely to accept it in its current form, while saying that the door to diplomacy remains open. The same report has Iran proposing to dilute its uranium enriched to 60 percent and transfer it to a third party. The report carries the observation date, after the Friday close, and is second-hand.
Unattributed WarningGames I & III: an unnamed source costs its sender nothing; what it conveys is that the pending reply is expected to be a rejection of the current form and not of the channel.
2 Oct
Saudi Arabia · Turkey · Pakistan
An offensive to retake the Bab el-Mandeb coast is reported in preparation. Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia is preparing an assault on the Houthis with more than 100,000 Yemeni troops and Saudi air support, Turkey and Pakistan supplying air-defense systems and drones, 30,000–40,000 Pakistani troops in the kingdom in a defensive role, and U.S. advisers and targeting intelligence; the President declined direct U.S. strikes, and the timing is put between a week and after the U.S. midterm elections.
Materiel Behind an OffensiveGame V: third-country equipment and personnel behind a planned offensive lower the entry threshold further than the protective deployments of last week, without constituting entry.
1 Oct
United States · Pentagon
A third carrier strike group is ordered to the region. The USS Theodore Roosevelt and an amphibious ready group with about 2,000 Marines sailed for the Middle East (Associated Press), which would put three carriers in the region; arrival is put at late October by the Associated Press and at the end of November by a U.S. official quoted by Al Jazeera.
Force MovementGames I & III: a deployment is the costly form of the statement made the day before, and its arrival date brackets the election the American clock runs to.
30 Sep
United States · Trump
"We blow them up or make a deal." The President said the decision is coming and that the war will end soon, one way or the other; he told Time magazine in remarks reported on 1 October that military action is possible after the midterm elections if negotiations fail, and said the same day that Iran is "ready to fold up."
Stated UltimatumGame I: a statement of the two branches costs nothing and commits to neither; it is the force movement that followed that prices it.
29 Sep
United States · via Qatar
A counterproposal reaches Tehran three days after a public refusal. Qatari mediators delivered Washington's response to Foreign Minister Araghchi, who presented the U.S. proposal to the cabinet on 30 September; President Pezeshkian said the agreement "must now be based on a win-win strategy." An official cited by Reuters placed the disagreement in the sequencing of the steps and not in the components of the plan. The contents were not published.
Counter-OfferGame III: an offer, a refusal, and a counter-offer on one channel within a week; a dispute over sequence is a dispute over who moves first, which is the commitment problem in its plainest form.
28 Sep
Iran · Revolutionary Guard
Four tankers struck within about a day, and the Guard says it has been striking ships. Al Funtas was hit late on 28 September and Mersin Prosperity, Sinbad, and Al Ruwais on 29 September (Seatrade Maritime), with no crew casualties reported and none attributed by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations. Two further tankers were struck later in the week, the Kuwaiti tanker Kazimah III on 1 October (Seatrade Maritime) and another on 2 October; Arab News counts five for the week and gCaptain at least six since 27 September, none with casualties reported. A Guard spokesman said the force has been striking vessels in the strait for some time and that the United States had not retaliated "for a while" (Asharq Al-Awsat, 30 September); the Guard's navy claimed on 27 September to have seized a U.S. Remus 600 underwater vehicle.
Denial Capability ShownGame II: strikes without casualties during a week of recovering flows signal that denial remains available while its use is rationed.
26 Sep
United States · Trump
The seven-day plan is reportedly refused, with a bombing campaign expected after the midterms. The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed U.S. officials, that the President has rejected Iran's proposal and told aides he expects to conduct a new bombing campaign after the November midterm elections. The report carries the observation date, after the Friday close, and is second-hand; no public statement to the same effect was made during the week.
Relayed RefusalGames I & III: a refusal conveyed through unnamed officials costs its maker nothing and can be withdrawn; what it dates is the American clock, not the end of the channel.
25 Sep
Iran · Araghchi
A seven-day plan, sequenced and public. At the Security Council the Foreign Minister set out initial steps on days one to five, the strait reopening on day six, and nuclear talks on day seven, against the lifting of the naval blockade, a waiver of oil sanctions, the release of about $12 billion in frozen assets, and a ceasefire on all fronts including Lebanon and Yemen: "The seven-day timeline will start as soon as the United States accepts this plan." President Pezeshkian said the same day that Iran would readmit United Nations nuclear inspectors as part of a settlement, and that "we don't want it to get to the midterm elections."
Dated Public OfferGame III: a public, dated, sequenced offer is the first alternating-offer move since June, and it fixes terms its maker can be held to.
24 Sep
France · Macron
French soldiers, radars, and air-defense systems for Yanbu. The President said France will send them to the Red Sea oil terminal, "not to involve ourselves in any conflict, but to protect the site" (Al Jazeera, 25 September; France 24 and Bloomberg, 24 September). The same day a Greek military-operated Patriot battery intercepted a Houthi drone over Yanbu, and six ballistic missiles were intercepted near Yanbu and Taif. Turkish and Pakistani foreign ministers met their Saudi counterpart to arrange military-chief talks under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement of 7 August, which has not been triggered.
Forces to the Target SetGame V: forces committed to an asset inside the target set, and a third party's air defense engaging a belligerent's munition, lower the entry threshold for every other player without constituting entry.
24 Sep
United States · Senate
War-powers resolution fails 49 to 50. Collins, Murkowski, Paul, and Tillis voted for it and Fetterman against; Tillis cited the passage of sixty days since the administration's July notification that military action had restarted. The Majority Leader attributed the Republican votes to economic frustration over fuel prices; retail diesel stood at $6.50 a gallon on 25 September against $5.61 a month earlier.
One-Vote MarginGame III: the American clock is priced by the legislature as well as named by the executive, and a single vote is the remaining width of the commitment.
22 Sep
United States · Witkoff, Kushner
First high-level contact since June. The Special Envoy and Jared Kushner engaged Foreign Minister Araghchi indirectly through Qatari mediators on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, and again on 23 September; the President called it a "very good meeting," and the Secretary of State said it was significant "that at least there was a conversation." Iranian state television said Washington had requested the meeting. Al Jazeera reported that the contacts had moved into a technical phase with Iranian technical experts joining.
Channel ReopenedGames I & III: the track that carried terms in August and stalled in September reopened on its political side, which is the side that had been closed since June.
18 Sep
United States · Trump
"I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not?" The President added, to Axios, "Anything could happen with me," and said separately that the war "is going to end soon" and that Iran wants to negotiate because it is "losing in every way." He meets the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman on Tuesday on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.
Two-Sided StatementGame III: an end date and an escalation option stated in one week leave the counterparty to weigh which governs; neither carries a cost to the party that states it.
18 Sep
Saudi Aramco
No Saudi crude next month for at least two European refiners. The notice followed a drone attack on 11 September that damaged pumping stations on the East-West pipeline, which carries crude to the Red Sea; the pipeline was expected to resume partial operations within days and full capacity within six weeks. Poland's Orlen issued more than ten tenders for replacement cargoes. Brent nonetheless fell for a third consecutive session on Friday, as satellite data showed Saudi volumes through Hormuz rising.
Spillover to EuropeGame V: a supply loss borne by European buyers is a third-party cost realized, without a third party entering.
18 Sep
Iran · IRGC / Basij
Nine consecutive days without a missile or drone attack on host states; mobilization announced. The pause in Iranian fire on the states hosting American forces reached its ninth day while more than 600,000 were reported registered for the "Janfada-ye Iran" training program and a Basij mobilization was announced for Tehran. The rial traded at 2,311,000 to the dollar.
Pause and MobilizationGames I & V: restraint toward host states alongside domestic mobilization — the bound on Gulf targets holds while the capacity to absorb a larger strike is prepared.
13 Sep
Iran / Oman
Muscat meeting with the Gulf states postponed. The session at which Iran and Gulf states were to sign an Iran-Oman shipping arrangement was postponed by joint decision of Tehran and Muscat, at the request of some regional states, hours after an Iranian cargo vessel was struck near Qeshm; no new date was set. Oman's Foreign Minister: "We remain committed to fostering dialogue that supports stability and lasting cooperation in our region."
Technical Track StallsGame III: the channel that had delivered terms while the political track stood still did not deliver its signing.
12 Sep
United States · Trump
The war will likely end soon after November's midterm elections. The statement names the American timetable explicitly, and places the end of the conflict roughly two months out rather than in prospect now. Iran and Gulf states are meanwhile due in Muscat on Monday to sign an Iran-Oman shipping arrangement, with a senior Iranian official confirming that no negotiations with Washington are taking place.
Clock DisclosedGame III: an alternating-offer bargainer's own deadline is the information it would ordinarily conceal; stating it tells the counterparty exactly how long to endure before bargaining against a weaker opponent.
11 Sep
Houthis · Yemen
Yemen's Red Sea coast captured; control of Bab el-Mandab cemented. After seizing Mokha and Mayun Island on Thursday, the Houthis completed a week-long offensive along the coast, having declared a naval blockade of Saudi exports and struck Saudi energy facilities, forcing some operations to halt. Saudi Arabia answered with airstrikes; the fighting has killed more than five hundred. Bab el-Mandab carries roughly a tenth of global oil supply, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed.
Second ChokepointGame V: the cascade the game measures has moved from risk to fact — a second waterway compromised by an Iran-aligned party while the first is shut.
10 Sep
Markets
Brent settles at $107.63, its highest since 19 May; Hormuz transit falls to seven vessels. Crude rose as much as 7.1 percent intraday to $108, the largest one-day move in six weeks, as the Houthi advance compounded the Hormuz closure. Traffic through the strait fell to seven vessels on Thursday from eighteen on Tuesday, against more than a hundred a day before the war. The volatility index reached 17.84 before subsiding to 15.84 by Friday.
Price ConfirmationGames II & V: the oil market, which spent August treating this as a sanctions story, repriced it as a supply story within three sessions.
9 Sep
Iran · IRGC
Ballistic missiles fired toward a U.S. Navy warship; five Iranian tankers targeted in response. The United States had already destroyed three Iranian tankers on 5 September after attempted missile attacks on its naval vessels. Iran warned crews to remain off vessels near Kuwaiti and Bahraini ports. A commercial vessel was struck near Qeshm Island late on Saturday, killing one and injuring four.
Direct Naval ExchangeGame III scenario S3: fire is now being directed at American warships rather than at bases and shipping, which shortens the distance to a mass-casualty event.
4 Sep
United States · Vance / Trump
The fight is not a "war"; the conflict is "small potatoes." The Vice President declined the term as the administration navigates an unpopular conflict with the election approaching; the President minimised its scale the same day. American diesel prices reached a record high, and pump prices remain the channel through which the war is felt domestically.
Deadline SignalGame III: rhetorical minimisation ahead of a dated election is evidence on the American clock, and it is the clock Iran is reported to be waiting out.
1 Sep
United States · CENTCOM
Strikes on Iranian targets along the strait resume; Larak Island hit. Central Command published video of strikes on a number of Iranian targets including two unidentified vessels. The President said the strikes answered Iranian attempts to place further sea mines and an Iranian attack on an American base in Jordan earlier that week. The volatility index rose 9.5 percent on the day, its largest single-session move since July.
Reciprocal EscalationGames I & II: the exchange resumed on the same calibrated pattern — assets and vessels, not cities or leadership — which is the bound both parties have observed without agreeing to it.
1 Sep
SCO · Bishkek
Pezeshkian at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit with Xi, Putin, Modi and Sharif. Iran's president appeared in the summit photograph alongside the leaders of China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — the same week Washington sought compliance with sanctions that China has refused to enforce.
Bloc EmbeddingGame V: the sanctions instrument requires third-party compliance, and Iran is being incorporated into the bloc from which that compliance would have to come.
31 Aug
Iran · IRGC
Attack on the crude tanker MT Sidr kills two seafarers. The strike closed a month in which Iran hit at least thirteen commercial vessels. Iranian missiles and drones also struck Jordan and Bahrain, and an American base in Jordan was targeted. Iran continued to refrain from larger-scale attacks on Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Target SelectionGames II & IV: fire directed at American bases and at escorted shipping, and withheld from Israel, is evidence about which party Tehran treats as the principal.
28 Aug
Iran · Rezaei
Tehran drafting a list of conditions to open the strait, at mediator request. Security chief Mohsen Rezaei said Iran is preparing the list in response to requests from mediators, and that the United States must take practical steps to meet the demands before the waterway reopens. Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf separately defended negotiation against hardline criticism, writing that dialogue is "neither a replacement for" resistance "nor a sign of retreat from it."
Position FormalizedGames I & III: converting a posture into an enumerated list is the step that makes a demand negotiable, and the domestic defence of talks prepares ground for a move Tehran has not yet agreed to make.
27 Aug
Iran / Oman
Understanding reached on a temporary joint corridor — inbound lanes entirely in Iranian waters. Two-way lanes about two nautical miles apart across roughly seven, per the IRGC-linked Defa Press; the Guard's spokesman said shares of both the waters and the revenues were agreed weeks earlier. The proposal would formally close the southern route through Omani internal waters that the United States has urged vessels to use, and that now carries more than eighty percent of liquids. Reopening remains conditioned on the United States lifting the blockade, releasing frozen funds, adding no sanctions and no forces.
Technical Track DeliversGames II & III: the channel produced terms and no reopening, which separates a technical agreement from the political settlement that gates it; the routing content would reverse the fact on the water eroding Iran's leverage.
27 Aug
Qatar · Al Thani
Qatar's Prime Minister in Tehran; "stressed the need to resume the diplomatic process." He met Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf, discussing the corridor proposal and "suitable conditions for dialogue." Pakistan's army chief had visited days earlier, and Islamabad reported "momentum," while noting the outcome is "a sovereign decision that is to be taken in Tehran and Washington." The same day President Trump said the administration is "not looking to meet."
Mediator SurgeGame V: three mediators are now working the file at ministerial level, which is the most active third-party configuration since July and the principal offset to the cascade risks elsewhere.
24 Aug
United States · Bessent
"Economic asphyxiation" — the objective is to "sever every economic lifeline that sustains this tyrannical regime." The Treasury Secretary's campaign, which the President called an "economic D-Day," was met with queues at Tehran filling stations, an admission that Iran cannot import petrol under the blockade, and foreign trade down about 35 percent. China called the measures illegal and refused to enforce them; Washington signalled penalties on Chinese banks in response.
Character ChangeGames III & V: the contest moves from the waterway to the balance sheet, which shifts risk from maritime scenarios toward regime-stability and great-power scenarios without reducing it.
14 Aug
United States · Trump
Will declare the Strait of Hormuz U.S. territory "pretty soon," after Iran is defeated. The stated American objective widens from reopening the waterway to holding it. The Treasury Secretary said Washington would impose economic measures against Iran that have "never been seen," with further announcements next week, alongside the eighth sanctions package of 2026 against Iran's shadow-banking network.
War-Aim ExpansionGames I & III: a war aim of territorial control is not a demand a counterparty can concede within a bargaining set, so the announcement narrows rather than widens the space for agreement.
14 Aug
Iran · IRGC
Downed an American unmanned aerial vehicle over Hormozgan province. Tehran restated that Iran, not the United States, decides who sails through the strait. The action is calibrated: an unmanned asset over Iranian territory, which imposes cost and asserts control without inflicting American casualties.
Calibrated SignalGame II: the choice of an unmanned target is the signal — a demonstration of capability priced below the threshold that would compel an American response in kind.
13 Aug
United States · Hegseth
The Navy can maintain the blockade of Iranian ports indefinitely. The Secretary of War's statement converts the blockade from an instrument of pressure toward a settlement into a sustainable end state. The Vice President separately named cheap gasoline and oil as "goal number one" and Iranian non-weaponization as "goal number two."
Patience ClaimGame III: an explicit claim to unlimited endurance is a claim to the higher discount factor, and it directly contests the surplus division the Rubinstein structure assigns.
9 Aug
Iran · Araghchi
No negotiations with Washington are under way; the Oman channel is separate from reopening. The Foreign Minister stated that changes to maritime routing are "a technical and legal matter and do not mean that the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened," and conditioned any resumption on the United States ending alleged violations of the June memorandum and compensating for them.
Track SeparationGames I & III: the statement withdraws the premise on which the prior week's readings rested, separating a technical channel from the political negotiation it was taken to represent.
7 Aug
United States · official (Reuters)
The United States will lift the blockade once a Hormuz deal is announced. A U.S. official told Reuters that Washington expects an Oman-Iran deal soon and will lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports once an agreement restores commercial shipping without impediments, with U.S. actions "performance-based" and tied to Iran's implementation. Trump: the strait is "sort of open right now," though fewer than ten ships per day transited.
Conditional ConcessionGames I & III: a concrete U.S. concession — lifting the blockade — is now attached to a defined outcome, converting an asserted pause into a terms-based convergence.
7 Aug
Turkey · Saudi · Pakistan
Joint defense pact signed in Mecca. Turkish President Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif signed a joint defense agreement in Mecca; the statement avoided naming Iran. Tehran dismissed it: "a paper agreement with Turkey and Pakistan will not bring them security." The same three states are central mediators of the U.S.-Iran track.
Bloc FormationGame V: a coordinated security bloc among the mediators reduces the risk of uncoordinated third-party entry, while hardening a structure Iran rejects.
6 Aug
Iran · Majlis
Parliament reviews a bill with stricter Hormuz conditions than expected. The Iranian parliament began reviewing a draft to ban U.S. and Israeli vessels from the strait and to formalize fees on cargo, terms stricter than markets had anticipated; Brent settled more than $3 higher on August 6 in response. Iran's Foreign Minister framed the outcome as a victory "in the face of the world's most expensive military."
Distributive SignalGame III: Iran is legislating the favorable terms rather than conceding them, consistent with the more-patient party capturing the larger share.
4 Aug
Iran / Oman
Oman-Iran talks on the strait continue; the United States signals optimism. Iran continued its Oman-mediated talks on the management of the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States signaled optimism on a deal. The talks that resumed after the August 1 pause did not break down; they moved toward the specific terms reported later in the week, against a backdrop of continued vessel attacks and minimal transit.
De-escalation SignalGame I: the pause converted into a working negotiation rather than lapsing, the reciprocation that was open at last week's update.
1 Aug
United States · Trump
Cancels the prepared U.S.-Israel strike campaign; "perimeters of a deal" agreed. Trump announced he was calling off a major bombing campaign against Iranian energy infrastructure that had been reported for the weekend, stating that Iran and other regional states had asked him to hold off, that "the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to," and that talks would resume Monday — conditioned on the "complete and total opening" of the Strait of Hormuz.
De-escalation SignalGames I & III: a threatened escalation withheld in exchange for resumed negotiation. The first material de-escalation since July 6. Unreciprocated as of the update.
1 Aug
Iran · Mehr agency
"Simply a new lie." Iran's semi-official Mehr News Agency dismissed the U.S. characterization of an agreed deal, and Iran had issued no formal confirmation as of the update. The naval blockade remained in place, and a tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile near the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week.
Non-ConfirmationGame III: the counterparty publicly disputes the deal's existence, which is why the Game III score sits at 40 rather than higher and the reading is conditioned on Monday's talks.
31 Jul
Saudi Arabia · MBS
Crown Prince urges de-escalation directly. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called President Trump to urge against the planned strikes and to prioritize dialogue, citing the economic risk of a closed strait, with Qatar, the UAE, Turkey, and Pakistan pressing both sides in parallel. Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi worked the Saudi, Turkish, and Pakistani channels.
Third-Party MediationGame V: Saudi Arabia moves from struck party to lead mediator, the proximate cause of the cancelled strike. The outside-option pressure flagged last week, now operating.
29 Jul
United States · CENTCOM
A "heavy wave" of strikes before the pause. The United States conducted a large wave of strikes on Iran on July 29, and Brent rose 7.9% that day, before the diplomatic track reopened at week's end. The sequence — heavy strikes midweek, cancellation of the larger campaign at the weekend — marks the pivot rather than a clean stop.
Costly SignalGame I: the campaign was at full intensity days before the off-ramp, which is why the reading is an off-ramp from a floor rather than a return to the pre-July baseline.
24 Jul
United States · Trump
Threatens "major military punishment"; weighs a "massive attack." After the Red Sea tanker strikes, Trump warned the Houthis and Iran of "major military punishment" over further attacks on Red Sea shipping and told Axios he was weighing a "massive attack" on Iran, while stating the United States would hold Iran responsible for Houthi actions. Brent, having settled at $100.69 on Jul 23, eased ~4% to ~$97 on reports of a possible Pakistan- and China-backed revival of talks.
Costly SignalGames I & V: the United States couples the Red Sea and Hormuz theaters, attributing Houthi action to Iran. The price pullback on talk-revival reports is the first two-sided market move in weeks.
23 Jul
Houthis / Iran
Second chokepoint opened: Saudi tankers struck in the Red Sea. Yemen's Houthis claimed strikes on two Saudi oil tankers (Encelia and Layla) enforcing the blockade of Saudi ports they declared on Jul 20. Brent closed above $100 for the first time since May. Separately, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended Black Sea loadings after tanker attacks, disrupting roughly 80% of Kazakhstan's exports.
Costly SignalGame V: the cascade becomes multi-theater. A second maritime chokepoint moves from threatened to active; ~18 mb/d of crude transit is now at risk across Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
22 Jul
United States · Trump
"One bridge or power plant" per ship. Trump stated the United States will "bomb and destroy" a bridge or power plant every time Iran targets a ship transiting the strait, naming infrastructure near Tehran as within the target set. A senior Iranian official replied that Tehran would strike "infrastructure and bridges across the region." The Dow fell more than 500 points as Brent crossed $100.
Automatic RuleGame I: a stated tit-for-tat rule removes the discretionary pause in which prior de-escalations occurred, mechanizing escalation.
20 Jul
United States · Rubio
"Iran has effectively killed the MOU" — but diplomacy remains open. Secretary of State Rubio stated Iran had effectively killed the memorandum after attacking multiple commercial ships, while saying the United States is still willing to pursue diplomacy and expects Iran to reaffirm open transit. Iraq's prime minister traveled between Washington and Tehran; Iran's FM said Tehran is not seeking mediation.
Mixed SignalGame III: the framework is declared dead at the principal level while a widening set of third parties attempts to convene talks neither side will own.
17 Jul
Iran · IRGC
Strikes Kuwait desalination plant; first direct strike on Syria. An Iranian strike damaged a Kuwaiti water-desalination plant, and Iran announced a new wave of attacks on U.S. facilities across the region including what it described as its first direct strike on targets in Syria. Reports indicate Tehran instructed Yemen's Houthi forces to prepare to close Bab el-Mandeb should U.S. forces strike Iranian power infrastructure.
Costly SignalGame V: cascade realized across Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, and Syria; a second maritime chokepoint is placed at risk.
15 Jul
Iran · Foreign Ministry
"No plans for negotiations"; Ghalibaf keeps the door open. Spokesman Baghaei stated Iran will continue to respond firmly and has no plans for talks with the United States. Chief negotiator Ghalibaf stated Tehran must defend itself while remaining open to diplomacy, and defended the "Iranian arrangements" in the strait. Iran released an American woman detained since December 2024.
Divided SignalGame III: contradictory declaratory positions from one government — the observable signature of an internal division over strategy, not a settled refusal.
13 Jul
United States · Trump
"We'll probably run it… we should be reimbursed." Trump told Fox News the United States was "going to keep the Strait," would "probably run it," and "should be reimbursed" for securing it. Separately he stated that Oman "will behave just like everybody else, or we'll have to blow them up," while Treasury Secretary Bessent threatened Oman with sanctions. Oman is the principal back-channel mediator.
Maximalist ClaimGame III: U.S. and Iranian claims to administer and charge for the strait do not overlap; the bargaining set is at its narrowest. Threatening the mediator raises the cost of the surviving channel.
12 Jul
United States · Trump / CENTCOM
Naval blockade reinstated; Brent posts its largest daily gain since May 2020. "We are reinstating THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE, so named because it is only stopping Iran's ships or customers from entering or leaving." Brent advanced 9.6% to settle at $83.30. Six consecutive nights of strikes followed, expanding to bridges, logistics infrastructure, maritime assets, and an IRGC surveillance tower at Chabahar; the U.S. Navy disabled a tanker approaching Kharg Island.
Costly SignalGames I & II: the blockade the MOU had lifted is restored, and the campaign is sustained rather than retaliatory. The strongest commitment signal of the project.
10 Jul
United States · Trump / Treasury
"Ceasefire is OVER," but talks to continue; new sanctions. Trump: "The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue 'talks.' We have agreed to do so, but the United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that the ceasefire is OVER!" Treasury sanctioned a financier for Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and 13 other entities. Qatari mediators shuttling.
MixedGame I: framework repudiated, but the negotiating channel is explicitly retained. Coercive bargaining, not declared war.
8 Jul
United States · CENTCOM
The United States strikes 80+ Iranian targets; MOU declared over. CENTCOM struck air-defense systems, radar, anti-ship missile capability, command and control. Trump declared the memorandum "over" at the NATO summit and threatened to reinstate the naval blockade, then added: "I don't think it's going to start again." Brent settled at $78.02 (+5.2%).
Costly SignalGames I & II: the most severe U.S. kinetic action since the ceasefire; framework formally repudiated.
7 Jul
United States · Treasury
Revokes the 60-day Iranian-oil license. The Treasury rescinded the July 2 authorization to sell Iranian oil; no new transactions permitted after July 17. The license had been the most concrete U.S. deliverable under the framework.
Concession WithdrawnGame III: surplus already placed on the table is removed; resets toward pre-agreement reservation points.
7 Jul
Iran · IRGC
Attacks the Qatari LNG tanker Al-Rekayyat near Hormuz. Iran struck the Qatari liquefied-natural-gas tanker and two further vessels transiting the strait. The U.S.-led Joint Maritime Information Center raised its Hormuz threat assessment to "severe." Brent settled at $74.16 (+3%).
Costly SignalGames II & V: Iran re-engages the attrition game and draws in a third party (Qatar) by targeting its vessel.
6 Jul
OPEC+
Approves 188,000 b/d August quota increase. Seven members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to raise output. Saudi Arabia set its August Asia crude price at a $1.50 discount to the Oman/Dubai benchmark. Brent traded below $69.
NormalizationGame II & V: collective Gulf/OPEC+ action consistent with a resolved maritime dimension; supply-side normalization.
2 Jul
United States · Treasury
60-day Iranian-oil general license in effect. Treasury license authorizing production, delivery, and sale of Iranian-origin crude and petroleum products runs through August 21, 2026. An estimated 67 million barrels stored on Gulf tankers freed for sale; Chinese refiners the principal buyers.
CommitmentGame I & III: concrete U.S. sanctions-relief step, conditional and time-bounded; raises the cost to both sides of a breakdown within the 60-day window.
1 Jul
Iran · Foreign Ministry
Denies IAEA-inspection schedule; reaffirms enrichment right. Spokesman Baghaei stated UN inspectors were not scheduled to examine nuclear sites, rejecting U.S. statements. Pezeshkian: Iran "will never back down from the right to enrich uranium." Trump stated he would end talks if inspections were not agreed, adding there was "no rush."
DisputeGame III: pooling on the nuclear dimension. The United States and Iran describe the same talks with opposite content on inspections.
30 Jun
Israel / Lebanon
Fatal security-zone incident after two days of calm. Israeli forces killed two individuals in a southern Lebanon security zone; the Israeli military stated the individuals had entered a zone and failed to stop after warning shots. The June 26 framework ceasefire otherwise held.
ErosionGame IV & V: low-intensity stress on the Lebanon front; framework mechanism intact but not observed by Hezbollah.
22 Jun
United States · Vance
Switzerland talks conclude with 60-day roadmap. Four stated outcomes: IAEA-inspection invitation, a Hormuz-open mechanism, a Lebanon deconfliction cell, and a process for technical talks. Working groups formed on nuclear, sanctions, reconstruction, and monitoring. Iran subsequently disputed the inspection characterization.
FrameworkGames I, II, III: procedural architecture established. The deconfliction mechanisms are the structures that replaced the late-June strikes.
27 Jun
United States · CENTCOM
Second wave of U.S. strikes on Iran. After a drone hit the tanker M/T Kiku at 4:30 a.m., CENTCOM struck additional Iranian targets: "Iran was given a chance to honor the ceasefire agreement but elected not to." Trump warned the United States may be "forced to militarily complete the job," adding the Islamic Republic "will no longer exist" if it continues.
Costly SignalGame I & II: direct U.S. kinetic action, second consecutive day. Escalation framed as enforcement of the MOU, not abandonment of it.
26 Jun
Iran · IRGC Navy
Retaliates against U.S. targets; Kuwait and Bahrain hit. IRGC Navy struck "positions of the US terrorist army in the region." Kuwait and Bahrain reported missile/drone attacks. Iran: "the arrangements for controlling passage in the Strait of Hormuz are with the Islamic Republic … this will be the case from now on."
Costly SignalGame II & V: Iran asserts route-control claim by force; third-party cascade realized at low intensity (Kuwait, Bahrain).
26 Jun
United States · Trump / Vance
First U.S. strikes; "foolish violation." CENTCOM hit Iranian missile/drone storage and coastal radar after the Ever Lovely was struck on the U.S.-cleared Omani route. Vance: "Iran signed a ceasefire agreement. We have honored it … violence will be met with violence. If they have disagreements about how the MOU is being applied, they can pick up the phone."
EnforcementGame I: the United States treats Hormuz shipping attacks as the red line. The "pick up the phone" framing keeps a diplomatic off-ramp open.
26 Jun
Israel / Lebanon
Israel-Lebanon framework agreement signed in Washington. Rubio: "the beginning of the beginning" of a road to peace. Israel agrees to pull out of two areas beyond the south Lebanon buffer zone. Israel to send a delegation to DC to discuss the Iran deal. Hezbollah calls it "null and void."
CoordinationGame IV: first signal in a month that Israel is coordinating with the U.S. track rather than acting against it. Provisional — Hezbollah rejects it.
25 Jun
Iran · IRGC
Drone strikes the Ever Lovely in Hormuz. Singapore-flagged cargo ship hit while exiting the strait on the U.S.-cleared Omani-coast route. IRGC insists vessels use Tehran-designated routes near Iran's coast. The IMO paused its vessel-evacuation operation. Iran frames it as "ceasefire management," not violation.
Costly SignalGame II: Iran enforces its route-control reading of MOU point 5 by force. The trigger for the week's U.S.-Iran exchange.
19 Jun
United States · Vance
Cancels Switzerland nuclear talks. Vice President JD Vance canceled planned travel to the Bürgenstock mountain resort for the first substantive nuclear negotiations under the MOU after Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed 47 overnight. Iran threatened to walk if Israel continues.
ErosionGame III: postpones substantive nuclear talks. Game IV: Israeli action directly disrupts the U.S.-Iran track.
19 Jun
Israel/Hezbollah
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire reached (strained). 9 AM ET. Israeli ambassador says Israel is "firmly committed to immediate ceasefire and has halted offensive operations." Iran fires "first step" military strikes. Multiple Israeli soldiers killed; Netanyahu orders strikes "with force." IDF conducts >150 strikes since midnight before ceasefire takes hold.
ConstrainedGame V: separate Lebanon track has its own ceasefire mechanism, even if strained. Limits cascade.
18 Jun
Israel · Netanyahu
"With agreement or without — Iran will not have nuclear weapons." "As long as I am Prime Minister of Israel, this will not happen." Israeli ministers say Israel "won't be bound" by the MOU. Defense Minister Katz: IDF stays in Lebanon "for an unlimited period of time."
Public DefianceGame IV: principal-agent problem now publicly codified. Most direct evidence in the project's history.
17 Jun
United States · Trump & Iran · Pezeshkian
MOU signed in Versailles. 14-point memorandum. Immediate Hormuz reopening (pre-war volumes within 30 days), Iran non-weaponization commitment, HEU blended down inside Iran (Iran's demand accepted), $12B frozen assets released, mutual sovereignty respect, 60-day ceasefire including Lebanon. CENTCOM lifts port restrictions same day.
ResolutionGames I, II, III: bargaining set realized. Largest commitment-resolution signal of the project.
14 Jun
Israel · IDF
Strikes Beirut on MOU-signing morning. Hours before the originally planned White House MOU ceremony, Israeli jets struck Beirut. Killed 3+. Trump posted on Truth Social: "This morning's attack on Beirut should not have happened, particularly on a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran." MOU signing delayed to Wednesday June 17 in Versailles.
ErosionGame IV: Israel acted with full knowledge that the MOU signing was scheduled. Second principal-agent breakdown in 7 days.
12 Jun
United States · Trump
"MOU to be signed in coming days." Per Axios. Confirms 60-day ceasefire including Lebanon. Strait of Hormuz fully reopened immediately; pre-war volumes in 30 days. Iran 440kg HEU blended down inside Iran.
FrameworkGames I, II, III: imminent signing confirmed. Iran demands largely accepted.
8 Jun
Houthis
Missile at Israel + Red Sea threat. Yemen's Houthis fired a missile at Israel during the broader exchange and threatened to disrupt Red Sea shipping.
CascadeGame V: third-party cascade activated. Limited follow-through.
8 Jun
Israel · IDF
Strikes Tehran, Tabriz, Karaj, Isfahan overnight. IDF hit surface-to-surface missile launch sites and military infrastructure in western and central Iran. Explicitly excluded energy targets.
Costly SignalGame IV: Netanyahu authorized strikes despite Trump's direct call to stand down.
7 Jun
United States · Trump
"I call the shots. I call all the shots. He doesn't call the shots." Trump told Financial Times Netanyahu "won't have any choice" but to accept the U.S.-Iran deal. Called Netanyahu directly to urge no retaliation.
CommitmentGame IV: contradicted by Netanyahu's strikes hours later. Now also contradicted by June 14 Beirut strike and June 18 "with or without agreement" statement.
7 Jun
Iran · IRGC
First direct missile attack on Israel since April 8 ceasefire. Air-launched ballistic missiles targeted Ramat David Air Base in northern Israel after Israel struck Beirut.
Costly SignalGame IV: proportional retaliation, conditional on Israeli strike on Hezbollah.
30 May
United States · Trump
Sends MOU draft back to Iran with amendments. Demanded specificity on nuclear timing and immediate Hormuz handover. Most demands incorporated in eventual June 17 signed text.
NegotiationGame III: held U.S. line on substance; eventual deal accepts some Iranian demands (HEU in country) while operationalizing U.S. demands (immediate Hormuz).
24 May
United States · Rubio
Confirms "significant progress" in U.S.-Iran talks. Senior officials disclose MOU terms: 60-day ceasefire extension, Hormuz reopening, 30-day mine removal.
FrameworkEstablished the framework that was signed June 17.
5 May
United States · Rubio
"Critical moment" for nuclear deal. Briefing signaled U.S. acceptance of "Hormuz first, nuclear later" framing.
ConcessionGame III: set up the framework that became the MOU.
1 May
United States · Trump
"Hostilities terminated" letter to Congress. Addressed the 60-day War Powers Act deadline.
CommitmentGame I: foundational commitment device. Held through two stress tests and now signed MOU.
13 Apr
United States · CENTCOM
Naval blockade implemented. Full blockade of Iranian ports. Lifted June 17 with MOU signing.
Costly SignalGame II escalation; created the leverage that helped get the MOU signed.
10 Apr
Israel · Netanyahu
Ceasefire "did not extend to Lebanon." Pattern echoed June 7, June 14, June 18 — every time Israel was given the option, it acted independently of U.S. framing.
ErosionThe April 10 signal proved the structural pattern of the entire project. The model has tracked this consistently.
Five games
The structure of each game, the solution the page reads it by, and the scenarios of The Escalation Ledger it bears on.
| Game | Structure | Solution concept | Linked Ledger scenarios |
|---|---|---|---|
| I · Ceasefire decision | Chicken, two players | Nash equilibrium, two pure and one mixed | 1 and 2 |
| II · Hormuz standoff | War of attrition | Mixed-strategy equilibrium, exponential quitting times | 1 and 3 |
| III · Nuclear bargain | Rubinstein alternating offers | Subgame-perfect equilibrium | 2 and 5 |
| IV · Israel’s independence | Principal and agent, three players | A belief updated on signals, set against a retaliation threshold | 2 and 4 |
| V · Third-party entry | Global game | Threshold equilibrium (Carlsson and van Damme) | 4 |
Scores
A stability score is a weekly judgment, on a scale of 0 to 100, of how firmly a game’s present equilibrium holds. Scores compare games and weeks; they are not probabilities. Aggregate stability is the unweighted mean of the five.
Sliders
Every score, both discount factors, Iran’s posterior, and the retaliation threshold can be moved on the Games tab. The badge under the summary at the head of the page reads “Your counterfactual” when anything is off the analyst’s baseline, and Reset restores it.